Armen A. Agalyan
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Research on the rate of convergence in the limit theorem for the maximum of random variables

June 2022
Completed by student
Armen A. Agalyan


Scientific supervisor
Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Prof.
V. I. Piterbarg

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction. Problem statement.
  2. Used facts and notations.
  3. Construction of asymptotic expansions and accompanying measures.
  4. Weibull distribution.
  5. log-Weibull distribution.
  6. log-k-Weibull distribution.
  7. Conclusion. Main results.

1. Introduction. Problem statement.

In this paper, the rate of convergence in the Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko limit theorem for the maxima of random variables is investigated. As is known from the theorem, maxima can converge to three different parametric types of distributions. The Gumbel limit distribution is of greatest interest, as maxima of a large and diverse class of distributions converge to it. One of the main problems in extreme value theory is the classification of all distributions converging to the Gumbel distribution. Since the domain of such distributions is extremely wide, the tasks of applications require dividing it into subdomains that are reasonable in a certain sense. An alternative to the division into subdomains can be scaling, that is, the introduction of indicators of the behavior of distribution tails. This paper discusses the issue of constructing such a scale.

The paper describes an approach using the von Mises structure to obtain an accompanying law that has a simple form and at the same time yields better approximations. Classes of distributions of Weibull and log-Weibull types are considered as examples, and a scale of classes of distributions from the Gumbel maximum domain of attraction continuing these two classes is also proposed. For each class, the rate of convergence to the Gumbel distribution and the rate of approach to the obtained accompanying law are calculated.

2. Used facts and notations.

Let X1,...,Xn,...X_{1},...,X_{n},... be independent identically distributed random variables with the distribution function F(x)F(x). Denote Mn:=max(Xi,i=1,...,n)M_{n}:=\max(X_{i},i=1,...,n). By virtue of the Gnedenko-Fisher-Tippett theorem, see [1], [2], as well as [3], [4], if there exist sequences of positive numbers ana_{n} and real numbers bnb_{n} such that the limit of the probability P(Mnanx+bn)P(M_{n}\leq a_{n}x+b_{n}) as nn\rightarrow\infty is a non-degenerate distribution function (takes more than two values), then this limit belongs to one of three types, namely, to the types of Fréchet, Weibull, and Gumbel distributions. In the present work, distributions belonging to the third type are considered, that is, those whose distribution functions FF satisfy for some sequences an>0a_{n}>0 and bnb_{n} and all xx the limit relation

limnP(Mnanx+bn)=Λ(x):=exp(ex).(1)\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}P(M_{n}\leq a_{n}x+b_{n})=\Lambda(x):=\exp(-e^{-x}). \tag{1}

Such distributions are said to belong to the maximum domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution, denoted as FMDA(Λ)F\in MDA(\Lambda). In addition, for the sake of simplicity of presentation, we will restrict ourselves to right-unbounded distributions, that is, F(x)<1F(x)<1 for all xx. As can be seen from the following, the proposed approach can also be applied to distributions from the other two aforementioned maximum domains of attraction.

We consider the domain MDA(Λ)MDA(\Lambda) since this domain is extremely wide, and the tasks of applications require its division into reasonable in a certain sense subdomains. Thus, this domain includes distributions with tails 1F(x)1-F(x) roughly (logarithmically) equivalent as xx\rightarrow\infty to the tails of the Weibull distribution, that is, log(1F(x))Cxp,\log(1-F(x))\sim-Cx^{p}, C,p>0,C,p>0, roughly equivalent to log-Weibull tails, that is, log(1F(x))C(logx)p,\log(1-F(x))\sim-C(\log x)^{p}, C>0,p>1,C>0,p>1, while instead of powers on the right-hand sides one can take regularly varying at infinity functions, and a set of others, with even heavier (slower decreasing) and lighter (faster decreasing) tails at infinity.

As shown in [5], distributions from the domain MDA(Λ)MDA(\Lambda) can be described using the von Mises representation: FMDA(Λ)F\in MDA(\Lambda) if and only if for some x00x_{0}\geq0 the following representation holds

1F(x)=c(x)exp{x0x1f(t)dt},  xx0,(2)1-F(x)=c(x)\exp\left\{ -\int_{x_{0}}^{x}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt\right\} ,\ \ x\geq x_{0}, \tag{2}

where f(x)f(x) is a positive absolutely continuous function on [x0,[x_{0}, )\infty) such that f(x)0,f^{\prime} (x)\rightarrow0, and c(x)c>0c(x)\rightarrow c>0 as xx\rightarrow\infty. Often it is more convenient to use a more flexible representation, namely, FMDA(Λ)F\in MDA(\Lambda) if and only if for some x00x_{0}\geq0,

1F(x)=c(x)exp{x0xg(t)f(t)dt},(3)1-F(x)=c(x)\exp\left\{ -\int_{x_{0}}^{x}\frac{g(t)}{f(t)}dt\right\} , \tag{3}

with the same properties of the functions f(x)f(x) and c(x),c(x), and g(x)1g(x)\rightarrow1 as x.x\rightarrow\infty. The normalizing sequences can be chosen as follows:

bn=F(1n1),   an=f(bn),(4)b_{n}=F^{\leftarrow}(1-n^{-1}),\ \ \ a_{n}=f(b_{n}), \tag{4}

see [4],[6]. Moreover, if relation (1) holds for the sequence bnb_{n} indicated in (4) and some other sequence of positive a~n,\tilde{a}_{n}, then an/a~n1a_{n}/\tilde{a}_{n}\rightarrow1 as n,n\rightarrow\infty, and, furthermore, there exists a von Mises representation (3) with other g~\tilde{g} and f~\tilde{f} such that a~n=f~(bn).\tilde{a}_{n}=\tilde{f}(b_{n}).

There is an extensive bibliography on the study of the quality of convergence in relation (1). In this paper, an approach is proposed in which, instead of studying the quality of approximation by the Gumbel distribution, better approximations are proposed. In the next section, an asymptotic expansion in the theorem on convergence to the Gumbel distribution is derived. Next, accompanying measures are proposed that yield a power-law rate of convergence.

3. Construction of asymptotic expansions and accompanying measures.

Suppose that representation (2) holds. Using expressions(4), we have that

x0bn1f(t)dt=log(nc(bn)).(5)\int_{x_{0}}^{b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt=\log(nc(b_{n})). \tag{5}

Next,

Gn(x):=Fn(anx+bn)=(1c(anx+bn)exp{x0anx+bn1f(t)dt})n.G_{n}(x):=F^{n}(a_{n}x+b_{n})=\left( 1-c(a_{n}x+b_{n})\exp\left\{ -\int_{x_{0}}^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt\right\} \right) ^{n}.

Let us take the logarithm of this equality:

logGn(x)=nlog(1c(anx+bn)exp{x0anx+bn1f(t)dt}).\log G_{n}(x)=n\log\left( 1-c(a_{n}x+b_{n})\exp\left\{ -\int_{x_{0}} ^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt\right\} \right) .

Denoting for brevity

gn(x):=x0anx+bn1f(t)dtlogc(anx+bn),g_{n}(x):=\int_{x_{0}}^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt - \log c(a_{n}x+b_{n}),

we have that

logGn(x)=nk=0(1)kk+1(egn(x))k+1=negn(x)k=0ekgn(x)k+1.(6)\log G_{n}(x)=n\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{(-1)^{k}}{k+1}\left( -e^{-g_{n} (x)}\right) ^{k+1}=-ne^{-g_{n}(x)}\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{e^{-kg_{n}(x)} }{k+1}. \tag{6}

Using (5), we obtain:

gn(x)=x0bn1f(t)dt+bnanx+bn1f(t)dtlogc(anx+bn)=logn+bnanx+bn1f(t)dt+logc(bn)logc(anx+bn).\begin{aligned} g_{n}(x) & =\int_{x_{0}}^{b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt +\int_{b_{n}}^{a_{n} x+b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt-\log c(a_{n}x+b_{n})\\ & =\log n+\int_{b_{n}}^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt+\log c(b_{n})-\log c(a_{n}x+b_{n}). \end{aligned}

Let us introduce the function

γn(x)=bnanx+bn1f(t)dtlogc(anx+bn)c(bn),\gamma_{n}(x)=\int_{b_{n}}^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\frac{1}{f(t)}dt-\log\frac {c(a_{n}x+b_{n})}{c(b_{n})},

and rewrite (6) as follows:

logGn(x)=eγn(x)k=0ekγn(x)(k+1)nk.\log G_{n}(x)=-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{e^{-k\gamma_{n}(x)} }{(k+1)n^{k}}.

Since an=f(bn),a_{n}=f(b_{n}), we can write the expression for γn(x)\gamma_{n}(x) in the form:

γn(x)=bnanx+bn(1f(t)1f(bn))dtlogc(anx+bn)c(bn)+x.(7)\gamma_{n}(x)=\int_{b_{n}}^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\left( \frac{1}{f(t)}-\frac {1}{f(b_{n})}\right) dt-\log\frac{c(a_{n}x+b_{n})}{c(b_{n})}+x. \tag{7}

Note that due to relation (1), for all xx we have that γn(x)x\gamma _{n}(x)\rightarrow x as n.n\rightarrow\infty. It is also easy to see that if we assume representation (3) instead of (2), then the expression for the normalizing constant ana_{n} changes to an=f(bn)/g(bn)a_{n}=f(b_{n})/g(b_{n}), and the expression for γn(x)\gamma_{n}(x) — to the following:

γn(x)=bnanx+bn(g(t)f(t)g(bn)f(bn))dtlogc(anx+bn)c(bn)+x.(8)\gamma_{n}(x)=\int_{b_{n}}^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\left( \frac{g(t)}{f(t)} -\frac{g(b_{n})}{f(b_{n})}\right) dt-\log\frac{c(a_{n}x+b_{n})}{c(b_{n})}+x. \tag{8}

Thus,

logGn(x)=eγn(x)k=0ekγn(x)(k+1)nk;\log G_{n}(x)=-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{e^{-k\gamma_{n}(x)} }{(k+1)n^{k}};

and

Gn(x)=exp(eγn(x))exp(1nk=0e(k+2)γn(x)(k+2)nk).G_{n}(x)=\exp\left( -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\right) \exp\left( -\frac{1}{n} \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\frac{e^{-(k+2)\gamma_{n}(x)}}{(k+2)n^{k}}\right) .

Let us now give another obvious expression for γn(x)\gamma_{n}(x) and, accordingly, for the accompanying measure.

Proposition 1. Let relation (1) be satisfied, then, if we set an=f(bn),a_{n}=f(b_{n}), then

γn(x)=log1F(bn+anx)1F(bn)=log1n(1F(bn+anx)).(9)\gamma_{n}(x)=-\log\frac{1-F(b_{n}+a_{n}x)}{1-F(b_{n})}=\log\frac {1}{n(1-F(b_{n}+a_{n}x))}. \tag{9}

Indeed, since

γn(x)=x0anx+bng(t)dtf(t)x0bng(t)dtf(t)logc(anx+bn)+logc(bn),\gamma_{n}(x)=\int_{x_{0}}^{a_{n}x+b_{n}}\frac{g(t)dt}{f(t)}-\int_{x_{0} }^{b_{n}}\frac{g(t)dt}{f(t)}-\log c(a_{n}x+b_{n})+\log c(b_{n}),

then using representation (3), we obtain (9).

Thus, we obtain the accompanying law, which is given by the formula:

Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)},γn(x)=log1n(1F(bn+anx)).(10)G_{n}(x) = \exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\right\}, \quad \gamma_{n}(x) =\log\frac{1}{n(1-F(b_{n}+a_{n}x))}. \tag{10}

As stated above, from(1) it follows that γn(x)x,n\gamma_{n}(x) \to x, \quad n \to \infty.

In the subsequent sections, classes of distributions are considered: Weibull, log-Weibull, and log-k-Weibull; for each type γn(x)\gamma_{n}(x) is calculated, and then the rate of convergence to the accompanying law Gn(x)G_{n}(x) and the rate of convergence to the Gumbel distribution Λ(x)\Lambda(x) are estimated.

4. Weibull distribution.

In this section, we will consider the Weibull distribution, which has the form:

1F(x)=I{x0}ecxp,  where p>0, c>01-F(x)=\mathbf{I}_{\{x\geq0\}}e^{-cx^{p}},\ \ \text{where }p>0,\ c>0

Hereafter we will omit the indicator everywhere, assuming that all equalities are valid for xx0\forall x \ge x_{0}.

The von Mises representation will take the form:

1F(x)=exp{0x1Ct1pdt},C=1cp1-F(x) = - \exp\left\{ -\int_{0}^{x}\frac{1}{Ct^{1-p}}dt \right\}, \quad C = \dfrac{1}{cp}

Let us find the sequences bnb_{n} and ana_{n}. To do this, we substitute x=bnx = b_{n} into the distribution function and, taking into account that the following suits us

bn=F(1n1), an=f(bn)=Cbn1p,b_{n}=F^{\leftarrow}(1-n^{-1}), \ \quad \enspace a_{n} = f(b_{n}) = Cb_{n}^{1-p},

we obtain,

bn=(1clog(n))1p,an=C(1clog(n))1p1b_{n} = \bigg(\dfrac{1}{c} \log(n) \bigg)^{\frac{1}{p}}, \quad a_{n} = C \bigg(\dfrac{1}{c}\log(n) \bigg)^{\frac{1}{p} - 1}

Now let us calculate γn(x)\gamma_{n}(x) using expression (10):

γn(anx+bn)=log(n)+c(anx+bn)p=log(n)+c(Cbn1px+bn)p==log(n)+cbnp(1+Cbnpx)p=log(n)+cbnp(1+pCbnpx+p(p1)2C2bn2px2+O(1bn3p))==x+C(p1)2bnpx2+O(1bn2p)=x+(p1)2p1log(n)x2+O(1(log(n))2)\begin{aligned} \gamma_{n}(a_{n}x+b_{n} ) &= -\log(n) + c(a_{n}x+b_{n})^{p} = -\log(n) + c( Cb_{n}^{1-p}x + b_{n})^{p} = \\ &= -\log(n) + cb_{n}^p ( 1 + Cb_{n}^{-p}x)^{p} = -\log(n) + cb_{n}^{p}\bigg(1 + pCb_{n}^{-p}x + \dfrac{p(p-1)}{2}C^2b_{n}^{-2p}x^2 + O\bigg( \dfrac{1}{b_{n}^{3p}} \bigg) \bigg) = \\ &= x + C\dfrac{(p-1)}{2}b_{n}^{-p}x^2 + O\bigg( \dfrac{1}{b_{n}^{2p}} \bigg) = x + \dfrac{(p-1)}{2p}\dfrac{1}{\log(n)}x^2 + O\bigg( \dfrac{1}{(\log(n))^{2}} \bigg) \end{aligned}

Thus, we have obtained the expression for γn(x)\gamma_{n}(x) for the Weibull distribution. Next, we investigate the rate of convergence to the accompanying law Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)}G_{n}(x) = \exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\right\} and to the limit law Λ(x)=exp{ex}\Lambda(x) = \exp\left\{- e^x\right\}.

We have,

Mn(anx+bn)=Fn(anx+bn)=exp{nlog(1ec(anx+bn)p)}M_{n}(a_{n}x + b_{n}) = F^{n}(a_{n}x + b_{n}) = \exp\left\{ n\log(1-e^{-c(a_{n}x + b_{n})^{p}}) \right\}

Since c(anx+bn)p=log(n)+γn(x)c(a_{n}x + b_{n})^{p} = \log(n) + \gamma_{n}(x), we obtain:

Mn=exp{n(1neγn(x)12n2e2γn(x)+O(1n3))}==exp{eγn(x)}exp{e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)}\begin{aligned} M_{n} &= \exp\left\{ n\bigg( -\dfrac{1}{n}e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)} - \dfrac{1}{2n^2}e^{-2\gamma_{n}(x)} + O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{n^3} \bigg) \bigg) \right\} = \\ &=\exp\left\{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\right\} \cdot \exp\left\{-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_n(x)}}{2 n}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}} \right)\right\} \end{aligned}

Proposition 2. The rate of approach to the accompanying law Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)}G_{n}(x)=\exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)} \right\} for the Weibull distribution has the form:

Mn(anx+bn)Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)}e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)|M_{n}(a_{n}x + b_{n}) - G_{n}(x) | = \exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)} \right\} \left| \dfrac{e^{-2\gamma_{n}(x)}}{2n}+ O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{n^2} \bigg) \right|

We have obtained the rate of convergence to the accompanying law of order O(1n)O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{n} \bigg).

Let us further estimate the rate of convergence to Λ(x)\Lambda(x):

Mn=exp{exe(p1)2p1log(n)x2+O(1(log(n))2)}exp{12ne2γn(x)+O(1n2)}==exp{ex}exp{ex(p1)2p1log(n)x2+O(1(log(n))2)}exp{12ne2γn(x)+O(1n2)}\begin{aligned} M_{n} &= \exp\left\{ -e^{-x}e^{ \frac{(p-1)}{2p}\frac{1}{\log(n)}x^2 + O\big( \frac{1}{(\log(n))^{2}} \big) }\right\} \exp\left\{ - \dfrac{1}{2n}e^{-2\gamma_{n}(x)} + O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{n^2} \bigg) \right\} = \\ &= \exp\left\{ -e^{-x} \right\} \exp\left\{ e^{-x}\frac{(p-1)}{2p}\frac{1}{\log(n)}x^2 + O\big( \frac{1}{(\log(n))^{2}} \big) \right\} \exp\left\{ - \dfrac{1}{2n}e^{-2\gamma_{n}(x)} + O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{n^2} \bigg) \right\} \end{aligned}

Proposition 3. The rate of convergence to the Gumbel distribution for the Weibull distribution has the form:

Mn(anx+bn)Λ(x)=exp{ex}(p1)2p1log(n)exx2+O(1(log(n))2)|M_{n}(a_{n}x + b_{n}) - \Lambda(x) | = \exp\left\{ -e^{-x} \right\} \left| \frac{(p-1)}{2p}\frac{1}{\log(n)}e^{-x}x^2 + O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{(\log(n))^2} \bigg) \right|

We obtained a logarithmic convergence rate, which is significantly slower than the power-law convergence rate to the accompanying law.

Note that only for p=1p=1, the convergence rate can be better than logarithmic; it is easy to see that in this case γn(x)=x\gamma_n(x) = x, then the convergence rate will be proportional to n1n^{-1}.

5. log-Weibull distribution.

Let us consider the log-Weibull distribution:

1F(x)=I{x0}ec(log(x))p,  where p>1, c>0,1-F(x)=\mathbf{I}_{\{x\geq0\}}e^{-c(\log(x))^{p}},\ \ \text{where }p > 1 ,\ c>0,

Similarly to the previous section, all equalities are valid for xx0\forall x \ge x_{0}.

Let us write down the von Mises representation:

1F(x)=exp{0x1Ctlog(t)1pdt},C=1cp1-F(x) = - \exp\left\{ -\int_{0}^{x}\frac{1}{Ct \log(t)^{1-p}}dt \right\}, \quad C = \dfrac{1}{cp}

That is, the function f(t)=Ctlog(t)1pf(t) = Ct\log(t)^{1-p}. Let us calculate ana_{n} and bnb_{n}:

bn=exp{(1clog(n))1p},an=Cexp{(1clog(n))1p}(1clog(n))1p1b_{n} = \exp\left\{\bigg(\dfrac{1}{c} \log(n) \bigg)^{\frac{1}{p}} \right\}, \quad a_{n} = C\exp\left\{\bigg(\dfrac{1}{c} \log(n) \bigg)^{\frac{1}{p}} \right\} \bigg( \dfrac{1}{c} \log(n) \bigg)^{\frac{1}{p} -1}

We write out the expression for γn(x)\gamma_{n}(x):

γn(anx+bn)=logn+c(log(anx+bn))p=logn+c(logbn+log(1+Clog1pbnx))p==logn+c(logbn+Cxlog1pbn12C2x2log22pbn+O(log33pbn))p==logn+clogpbn(1+pCxlogpbn12pC2x2log12pbn+O(log23pbn))==logn+clogpbn+x12(cp)1x2log1pbn+O(log22pbn)==x12(cp)1x2log1pbn+O(log22pbn)\begin{aligned} \gamma_{n}(a_{n}x+b_{n} ) &= -\log n + c (\log(a_n x + b_{n}))^p = -\log n + c (\log b_n + \log(1 + C \log^{1-p} b_n x))^p = \\ &= -\log n + c \left(\log b_n + C x \log^{1-p} b_n - \frac{1}{2} C^2 x^2 \log^{2-2p} b_n + O(\log^{3-3p} b_n) \right)^p =\\ &= -\log n + c \log^{p} b_n \cdot \left(1+p C x \log^{-p} b_n - \frac{1}{2} p C^2 x^2 \log^{1-2p} b_n + O(\log^{2-3p} b_n) \right) = \\ &= -\log n + c \log^p b_n + x - \frac{1}{2} (c p)^{-1} x^2 \log^{1-p} b_n + O(\log^{2-2p} b_n) = \\ &= x - \dfrac{1}{2} (cp)^{-1} x^2 \log^{1-p} b_n + O(\log^{2-2p} b_n) \end{aligned}

Substituting the expression for bnb_{n}, we get:

γn(anx+bn)=x12x2p1c1plog1p1n+O(log2p2n)\gamma_{n}(a_{n}x+b_{n} ) = x - \dfrac{1}{2} x^2 p^{-1} c^{-\frac{1}{p}} \log^{\frac{1}{p}-1} n + O(\log^{\frac{2}{p} - 2 } n)

Let us investigate the rate of convergence to the accompanying law and to the Gumbel distribution, respectively.

Mn(anx+bn)=Fn(anx+bn)=(1eclog(anx+bn))n==(1eγn(x)logn)n=enlog(1eγn(x)n)=en(eγn(x)ne2γn(x)2n2+O(1n3))==eeγn(x)e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)=exp{eγn(x)}exp{e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)}\begin{aligned} M_{n}(a_{n}x+b_{n}) &= F^{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)=\left(1-e^{-c\log(a_{n}x+b_{n})}\right)^{n}= \\ &=\left(1-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)-\log n}\right)^{n}=e^{n \log \left(1-\frac{e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}}{n}\right)}=e^{n\left(-\frac{e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}}{n}-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_{n}(x)}}{2 n^{2}}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{3}}\right)\right)}= \\ &=e^{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_{n}(x)}}{2 n}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}}\right)}=\exp\left\{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\right\} \cdot \exp\left\{-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_n(x)}}{2 n}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}} \right)\right\} \end{aligned}

Proposition 4. The rate of approach to the accompanying law Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)}G_{n}(x)=\exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)} \right\} for the log-Weibull distribution has the form:

Mn(anx+bn)Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)}e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)|M_{n}(a_{n}x + b_{n}) - G_{n}(x) | = \exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)} \right\} \left| \dfrac{e^{-2\gamma_{n}(x)}}{2n}+ O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{n^2} \bigg) \right|

Proposition 5. The rate of convergence to the Gumbel distribution for the log-Weibull distribution has the form:

Mn(anx+bn)Λ(x)=exp{ex}12x2p1c1plog1p1n+O(log2p2n)|M_{n}(a_{n}x + b_{n}) - \Lambda(x) | = \exp\left\{ -e^{-x} \right\} \left| \dfrac{1}{2} x^2 p^{-1} c^{-\frac{1}{p}} \log^{\frac{1}{p}-1} n + O(\log^{\frac{2}{p} - 2 } n) \right|

The obtained rate of convergence is of the order of log1p1n\log^{\frac{1}{p}-1} n, which is significantly slower than the rate of convergence to the accompanying law 1n\frac{1}{n}.

6. log-k-Weibull distribution.

One of the continuations of the scale started by the two classes of distributions considered above can be the following. In distributions with Weibull or log-Weibull type tails, the function f(t)f(t) in the von Mises representation is equal to Ct1p,p>0C t^{1-p}, p>0 and Ctlog1pt,p>1C t \log ^{1-p} t, p>1, respectively. Heavier tails of distributions from MDA(Λ)MDA(\Lambda) are, for example, tails equivalent to exp(Clogxlog(k)px),p>1\exp \left(-C \log x \log_{(k)} ^{p} x\right),p>1 for which f(t)=Ct(log(k)t)pf(t)=C t\left(\log _{(k)} t\right)^{-p}, where logk=loglogk\log _{k}=\overbrace{\log \ldots \log }^{k}. Obviously, for any natural kk, the function f(t)=Ct(log(k)t)pf(t)=C t\left(\log _{(k)} t\right)^{-p} satisfies the conditions required in representations(2), (3). The number kk of logarithm repetitions in these expressions for f(t)f(t) can be called the Gumbel index, then distributions with Weibull-type tails have a Gumbel index k=0k = 0, log-Weibull — k=1k = 1, and so on.

c(x)1,C=1c,f(t)=1ctlogkpt,logkx0=0,k2c(x) \equiv 1, \quad C = \frac{1}{c}, \quad f(t)=\frac{1}{c} t \log _{k}^{-p} t, \quad \log _{k} x_{0}=0, \quad k \geq 2

Proposition 6. Let us show that for f(t)=1ctlogkptf(t)=\frac{1}{c} t \log _{k}^{-p} t the tails of the distribution F(x)F(x) will have the representation:

Fˉ(x)=exp(clogxlogkpx(1+O(logk1x))) as x,k=2,3,\bar{F}(x)=\exp \left(-c \log x \log _{k}^{p} x\left(1+O\left(\log _{k}^{-1} x\right)\right)\right) \quad \text { as } x \rightarrow \infty, k=2,3, \dots

Substituting f(t)f(t) into the von Mises representation and integrating by parts, we obtain:

x0xlogkptdtt=logxlogkpxpx0xlogkp1tdlogtlog2tlogk1t\int_{x_{0}}^{x} \log _{k}^{p} t \frac{d t}{t}=\log x \log _{k}^{p} x-p \int_{x_{0}}^{x} \log _{k}^{p-1} t \frac{d \log t}{\log _{2} t \ldots \log _{k-1} t}

since logk1tlogk1x0=1,\log _{k-1} t \geq \log _{k-1} x_{0}=1, then logit>1,i=2,,k2\log _{i} t>1, i=2, \ldots, k-2, in which case the last integral can be estimated by the integral

x0xlogkp1tdlogt\int_{x_{0}}^{x} \log _{k}^{p-1} t d \log t

we integrate by parts once more and obtain that the integral above can be estimated as O(logxlogkp1x)O\left(\log x \log _{k}^{p-1} x\right).

To find the rate of convergence with the accompanying law, let us find the expression for γn\gamma_{n}. We use formula (9):

γn(x)=log1n(1F(bn+anx))=log(n)+clog(anx+bn)logkp(anx+bn)\gamma_{n}(x)=\log \frac{1}{n\left(1-F\left(b_{n}+a_{n} x\right)\right)}=-\log (n)+c \log \left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right) \log _{k}^{p}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)

Substituting x=bnx = b_{n} into (2) and using expression(4), we write the formula for finding bnb_{n}.

log(n)=clog(bn)log(k)p(bn)\log (n)=c \log \left(b_{n}\right) \log _{(k)}^{p}\left(b_{n}\right)

For the log-k-Weibull distribution, it is not possible to find bnb_{n} and ana_{n} from the above equation in explicit form, unlike the cases of the Weibull and log-Weibull distributions.

Let us write the expression for γn(x)\gamma_n(x) in terms of bnb_{n}. We have:

an=f(bn)=1cbnlog(k)pbna_{n} = f(b_{n})=\frac{1}{c} b_{n} \log _{(k)}^{-p} b_{n}

Let us expand into a Taylor series log(anx+bn)\log \left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right):

log(anx+bn)=logbn+log(1+anxbn)=logbn+log(1+xclog(k)pbn)==logbn+xclog(k)pbnx22c2log(k)2pbn+O(log(k)3pbn)\begin{aligned} \log \left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right) &= \log b_{n}+\log \left(1+\frac{a_{n} x}{b_{n}}\right)=\log b_{n}+\log \left(1+ \frac{x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n}\right) = \\ &= \log b_{n} + \frac{x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n} - \frac{x^{2}}{2c^{2}} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-3p} b_{n}) \end{aligned}

For log(k)(anx+bn)\log_{(k)} \left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right) the expansion will have the form:

log(k)(anx+bn)=logk1(log(anx+bn))==logk2(log(logbn+xclog(k)pbnx22c2log(k)2pbn+O(log(k)3pbn)))==logk2(log(2)bn+xclog(k)pbnlog1bnx22c2log(k)2pbnlog1bn+O(log(k)3pbnlog1bn))==log(k)bn+xclog(k)pbnσk11(bn)x22c2log(k)2pbnσk11(bn)+O(log(k)3pbnσk11(bn))\begin{aligned} \log_{(k)} \left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right) &= \log _{k-1}\left(\log \left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)\right)= \\ &=\log_{k-2}\left(\log \left( \log b_{n} + \frac{x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n} - \frac{x^{2}}{2c^{2}} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-3p} b_{n}) \right)\right) = \\ &= \log_{k-2}\left(\log_{(2)} b_{n} + \frac{x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n} \cdot \log^{-1}{b_{n}} - \frac{x^2}{2c^2} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n} \cdot \log^{-1} b_{n} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-3p} b_{n} \cdot \log^{-1} b_{n} ) \right) = \\ &= \log_{(k)} b_{n} + \frac{x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n}\cdot \sigma_{k-1}^{-1}{(b_{n})} - \frac{x^{2}}{2c^{2}} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k-1}^{-1}{(b_{n})} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-3p} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k-1}^{-1}{(b_{n})}) \end{aligned}

Where the following notations were used:

σk(x)=i=1klog(i)(x),σ1(x)=log(x)\sigma_{k}(x)=\prod_{i=1}^{k} \log _{(i)}(x), \quad \sigma_{1}(x)=\log (x)

Further,

log(k)p(anx+bn)=log(k)pbn(1+pxclog(k)p1bnσk11(bn)px22c2log(k)2p1bnσk11(bn)+O(log(k)3p1bnσk11(bn)))==log(k)pbn+pxclog(k)1bnσk11(bn)σk1(bn)px22c2log(k)pbnσk1(bn)+O(log(k)2pbnσk1(bn))\begin{aligned} \log _{(k)}^{p}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right) &= \log_{(k)}^p b_{n} \cdot \left(1 + \frac{p x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p-1} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k-1}^{-1}{(b_{n})} - \right. \\ &\quad \left. - \frac{p x^2}{2c^2} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-2p-1} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k-1}^{-1}{(b_{n})} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-3p-1} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k-1}^{-1}{(b_{n})}) \right) = \\ &= \log_{(k)}^p b_{n} + \frac{p x}{c} \cdot \underset{\sigma_{k}^{-1}{(b_{n})}}{\underbrace{ \log_{(k)}^{-1} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k-1}^{-1}{(b_{n})}}} - \frac{p x^2}{2c^2} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k}^{-1}{(b_{n})} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k}^{-1}{(b_{n})}) \end{aligned}

Now we can obtain the final representation for γn\gamma_{n}:

γn=logn+c(logbn+xclog(k)pbnx22c2log(k)2pbn+O(log(k)3pbn))××(log(k)pbn+pxclog(k)1bnσk1(bn)px22c2log(k)pbnσk1(bn)+O(log(k)2pbnσk1(bn)))==logn+clogbnlog(k)pbn+xx22clog(k)pbn+O(log(k)2pbn)==xx22clog(k)pbn+O(log(k)2pbn)\begin{aligned} \gamma_{n} &= - \log n + c\left( \log b_{n} + \frac{x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n} - \frac{x^{2}}{2c^{2}} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-3p} b_{n}) \right) \times \\ &\quad \times \left( \log_{(k)}^p b_{n} + \frac{p x}{c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-1} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k}^{-1}{(b_{n})} - \frac{p x^2}{2c^2} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k}^{-1}{(b_{n})} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n} \cdot \sigma_{k}^{-1}{(b_{n})}) \right) = \\ &= - \log n + c \log b_{n} \log_{(k)}^p b_{n} + x - \frac{x^2}{2c} \cdot \log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n}) = \\ &= x - \frac{x^2}{2c \log_{(k)}^{p} b_{n}} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n}) \end{aligned}

Let us now consider the rate of convergence to Λ(x)\Lambda(x), as well as to the obtained accompanying law Gn(x)G_n(x).

For the distribution of maxima, we have the following representation:

Mn(anx+bn)=Fn(anx+bn)=(1exp{clog(anx+bn)logkp(anx+bn)})nM_{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)=F^{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)=\left(1-\exp \left\{-c \log \left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right) \log _{k}^{p}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)\right\}\right)^{n}

Using that γn(x)=log(n)+clog(anx+bn)logkp(anx+bn)\gamma_{n}(x)=-\log (n)+c \log (a_{n}x+b_n) \log _{k}^{p}(a_{n}x+b_n), we obtain:

Fn(anx+bn)=(1eγn(x)logbnlog(k)pbn)n==(1eγn(x)logn)n=enlog(1eγn(x)n)=en(eγn(x)ne2γn(x)2n2+O(1n3))==eeγn(x)e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)=exp{eγn(x)}exp{e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)}\begin{aligned} F^{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right) &= \left(1-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)-\log b_{n} \log_{(k)}^{p} b_{n}}\right)^{n}= \\ &=\left(1-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)-\log n}\right)^{n}=e^{n \log \left(1-\frac{e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}}{n}\right)}=e^{n\left(-\frac{e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}}{n}-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_{n}(x)}}{2 n^{2}}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{3}}\right)\right)}= \\ &=e^{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_{n}(x)}}{2 n}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}}\right)}=\exp\left\{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\right\} \cdot \exp\left\{-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_n(x)}}{2 n}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}} \right)\right\} \end{aligned}

Now let us consider the rate of approach to the accompanying law

Fn(anx+bn)eeγn(x)=eeγn(x)(ee2γn(x)2n1)+O(1n2)==eeγn(x)(1e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)1)+O(1n2);\begin{aligned} F^{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)-e^{-e^{-\gamma_n(x)}} &= e^{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}} \cdot\left(e^{-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_{n}(x)}}{2 n}}-1\right)+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}}\right)= \\ &=e^{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}} \cdot\left(1-\frac{e^{-2 \gamma_{n}(x)}}{2 n}+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}}\right)-1\right)+O\left(\frac{1}{n^{2}}\right) ; \end{aligned}

Proposition 7. For the log-k-Weibull distribution, the rate of approach to the accompanying law Gn(x)G_{n}(x) is equal to

Mn(anx+bn)Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)}e2γn(x)2n+O(1n2)|M_{n}(a_{n}x + b_{n}) - G_{n}(x) | = \exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)} \right\} \left| \dfrac{e^{-2\gamma_{n}(x)}}{2n}+ O\bigg(\dfrac{1}{n^2} \bigg) \right|

Remark 1. Thus, the rate of convergence of MnM_n to GnG_n is of order O(1n)O\left(\frac{1}{n} \right)

Now let us find the asymptotics of the rate of convergence of MnM_n to the Gumbel distribution function.

From Remark 2, we have that

Fn(anx+bn)=eeγn(x)+O(1n),nF^{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)=e^{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}}+O\left(\frac{1}{n}\right), n \rightarrow \infty

Now let us find the asymptotics of the rate of convergence of MnM_{n} to the Gumbel distribution function

Fn(anx+bn)Λ(x)=eeγn(x)+O(1n)eex==eex+x22clog(k)pbn+O(log(k)2pbn)eex==eex(1+x22clog(k)pbn+O(log(k)2pbn))eex=x2eex2clog(k)pbn+O(log(k)2pbn)\begin{aligned} F^{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)-\Lambda(x) &= e^{-e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}}+O\left(\frac{1}{n}\right)-e^{-e^{-x}} = \\ &= e^{-e^{-x + \frac{x^2}{2c \log_{(k)}^{p} b_{n}} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n})}}-e^{-e^{-x}} =\\ &= e^{-e^{-x}} \cdot \left(1 + \frac{x^2}{2c \log_{(k)}^{p} b_{n}} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n}) \right) -e^{-e^{-x}} = \frac{x^2 e^{-e^{-x}}}{2c \log_{(k)}^{p} b_{n}} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p} b_{n}) \end{aligned}

Thus, the rate of convergence to the Gumbel distribution is of order O(log(k)pbn)O(\log_{(k)}^{-p} b_{n}), which is significantly slower than the rate of convergence of the maxima to the accompanying law O(1n)O\left(\frac{1}{n}\right)

Remark 2. It is easy to show that O(1logkp(bn))=O(1logkp(n))O\left(\frac{1}{\log _{k}^{p}\left(b_{n}\right)}\right)=O\left(\frac{1}{\log _{k}^{p}(n)}\right)

This obviously follows from the equation for bnb_{n}:

log(n)=clog(bn)log(k)p(bn)\log (n)=c \log \left(b_{n}\right) \log _{(k)}^{p}\left(b_{n}\right)

Applying the logarithm to both sides, we get:

log2(n)=log(c)+log2(bn)+plog(k+1)(bn)\log _{2}(n)=\log (c)+\log _{2}\left(b_{n}\right)+p \log _{(k+1)}\left(b_{n}\right)

From which it follows that log(k)(bn)=log(k)(n)+o(1)\log _{(k)}\left(b_{n}\right)=\log _{(k)}(n)+o(1)

Proposition 8. For the log-k-Weibull distribution, the rate of convergence to the Gumbel distribution Λ(x)\Lambda(x) for k>1k>1 is equal to

Mn(anx+bn)Λ(x)=exp{ex}x22clog(k)pn+O(log(k)2pn)\left|M_{n}\left(a_{n} x+b_{n}\right)-\Lambda(x)\right| = \exp\left\{ -e^{-x} \right\} \left| \frac{x^2}{2c \log_{(k)}^{p}{n}} + O(\log_{(k)}^{-2p}{n}) \right|

7. Conclusion. Main results.

In this paper, a sequence of accompanying laws in the B. V. Gnedenko limit theorem for the maxima of independent random variables is described, and the rate of convergence of the maxima to the accompanying law Gn(x)=exp{eγn(x)}G_{n}(x) = \exp\left\{ -e^{-\gamma_{n}(x)}\right\} for classes of distributions from the proposed scale was investigated. For all classes, the rate of convergence to the accompanying law is of the order of 1n\sim \dfrac{1}{n}. The rates of convergence of the maxima to the Gumbel limit distribution were also calculated. These rates of convergence turned out to be significantly slower relative to the accompanying law. Thus, for the Weibull distribution, a rate of the order of 1log(n),p>1\sim \dfrac{1}{\log(n)}, p>1 and n1,p=1\sim n^{-1}, p=1 was obtained, for the log-Weibull log1p1(n),p>1\sim \log^{\frac{1}{p}-1}(n), p>1, and for the log-k-Weibull log(k)p(n),p>0\sim \log_{(k)}^{-p}(n) , p>0. Thus, the constructed accompanying law has a good rate of approach to the initial sequence of distributions, but at the same time has a simpler form, which is convenient to use for estimating the maxima of the considered types of distributions.


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